Homefront Living: The MANPAD Threat

A Special Section of the Project On Insurgency, Terrorism and Security

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The Shoulder-Fired Missile Threat

Shoulder-fired missiles represent an officially unrecognized threat to the United States.

The missiles are designed so that they can be used by personnel without significant training. They were used by many of the people who later came into Osama bin Laden's al-Qaeda. The Mislim rebels destroyed more than 200 Soviet aircraft with the missiles, known as MANPADs, supplied by the United States.

The missiles are widely available. After the Afghan victory over the Soviets, hundreds of the unused missiles were left in the hands of the rebel forces. A U.S. General Accounting Office report showed that the United States could not accurately account for its missiles. And, after the breakup of the Soviet Union, an unknown number of missiles were reportedly pilfered and sold on the world's arms markets. In June 2002 many of the missiles, of Chinese manufacture, were found in al-Qaeda caches. Al-Qaeda clearly has access to the missiles.

While it is generally not known, these missiles were used in many downings of civilian and commercial aircraft. Hundreds of passengers were killed in those attacks, many of which occurred in the 1990s.

After 9/11, the U.S. grounded all aircraft in the United States. Tha action caused severe economic distress, and damaged the economic viability of American airlines. Given the boasts of Osama bin Laden that he will attempt to destroy the economic life of the United States, the fact that the closure of the airlanes caused widespread economic havoc was probably observed and noted.

An attack against U.S. airliners, using these missiles, appears to have a high probability of success and would result in widepread confusion and serious economic consequences.

The missiles can attack aircraft flying as high as 10,000 or even 15,000 feet, depending on the particular type of rocket used.

While there are methods of defeating the missiles, no civilian aircraft are fitted with the equipment. Retrofitting of detection and decoy equipment is difficult if not impossible.

While there is no obvious answer to preventing MANPAD attacks, the characteristics of the missile allow travelers the opportunity to drastically reduce their dangers.

The missiles are difficult to use effectively at night. By booking flights that are scheduled for take-off after dark, the dangers are dramatically reduced. Since the missiles would likely be used against the largest aircraft, taking smaller planes makes sense. Larger airports, particularly major hubs and airports with an "international name" are more likely to be targeted. For that reason, using smaller airports makes sense.